我对递归自我改进（RSI）的立场
原标题：Where I stand on RSI
AI 摘要
Interconnects AI 作者撰文阐述其对递归自我改进（RSI）的立场。作者认为，当前 AI 安全担忧更多源于前沿实验室（尤其 OpenAI 和 Anthropic）大规模使用数千并发智能体所带来的文化焦虑，而非真正的 RSI 突破；他提出「有损自我改进」替代情景，指出可自动化研究范围有限、并行智能体收益递减、资源瓶颈与政治因素制约进展。文章还引用了 Richard Ngo 的观点，并梳理了 Dwarkesh 播客中 Noam Brown 及 John Schulman、Beren Millidge、Charlie O'Neill 关于 AI 能力时间线的预测。
正文节选
We’re in an era where a few organizations are using thousands of concurrent agents to improve their processes and output. These organizations happen to be just the frontier AI labs, in particular OpenAI and Anthropic. In the last few weeks, I’ve been pondering what it means for so many employees across these organizations to rapidly update their expectations for the pace of AI progress and associated risks. A core perspective I have is that the frontier labs and broader frenetic, competitive cul