AI 工程加速可期，但通用超级智能尚远
原标题：I expect rapid progress but not towards general superintelligence
AI 摘要
Interconnects AI 作者认为，AI 将在几年内成为超人的分布式 GPU 工程师，大幅加速基础设施与工程能力，使模型实验和调优变得更容易，但这不会让模型本质发生剧变。作者预计推理效率将接近指数级下降，预训练架构与数据选择研究可能在 2-3 年内自动化，并引发智能体模型的杰文斯悖论。文章还指出 RL 环境质量普遍低下但可修复，科学文献中的跨领域发现将是下一阶段。
正文节选
I’ve often been surprised when I hear from top researchers in industry that they think AI will be better than them at their job in a few years, and I didn’t really know why I doubted it. The explanation I arrived at is that researchers are seeing this massive acceleration in the infra and engineering capabilities of the models. I fully agree that the models will be superhuman distributed GPU engineers in a few years. This will make experimentation and tinkering with the formulation of the models