AI如何消灭人类？文明风险的失效模式分析
原标题：How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk
AI 摘要
该论文提出一个失效模式分析框架，用于分析先进AI如何可能导致人类灭绝、不可逆的文明崩溃或人类永久性失能。作者认为灾难性AI风险不需要AI具备意识、敌意或明确的伤害意图，而可能通过自主失准、人类恶意使用、组织失败和竞争性部署等多条相互作用的路径产生。论文强调这是非操作性的概念分析，只识别因果条件、可实证的中间量和防御性研究问题，不提供造成伤害的具体方法。
正文节选
How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk Abstract This article develops a failure-mode framework for analyzing how advanced artificial intelligence could contribute to human extinction, irreversible civilizational collapse, or permanent human disempowerment. The central thesis is that catastrophic AI risk does not require consciousness, hostility, or an explicit intention to harm humanity. Instead, risk may arise through several distinct but interacting pat