AI万亿美元豪赌能否回本：需生产率提升2.7倍
原标题：What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off
AI 摘要
宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授Jessica Wachter及其合作者估算，超大规模云厂商到2027年AI数据中心支出将接近1.1万亿美元，若要覆盖资本成本、15%回报和资产折旧，这些公司到2030年需将自身生产率提高2.7倍才能盈亏平衡。前SEC主席Gary Gensler指出，今年AI总收入仅约1500亿至2000亿美元，与数万亿美元支出并不匹配。文章警告，若生产率繁荣未能实现，当前建设将成为史上最大规模的资本错配，并可能波及整体美国经济。
正文节选
When Jessica Wachter, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wanted to assess AI’s impact on the economy over the next few years, she faced a long list of business and technical uncertainties. So she started with what she calls a “remarkable fact” that is not in question: A handful of so-called hyperscalers are investing huge amounts of money to build AI data centers. Instead of trying to predict how useful and widely deployed AI models will be, she simply asked