30 个月指数级增长：AI 能力、价格与协作方式的变迁
原标题：30 Months on the Exponential (in Charts)
AI 摘要
沃顿商学院教授 Ethan Mollick 在新书《Co-Existence》发布之际，用图表回顾了自 2024 年《Co-Intelligence》出版以来 30 个月的 AI 进展。他指出，自 GPT-4 之后已有 20 个模型先后登顶，180 个模型在能力上超越 GPT-4 发布时的水平，其中 19 个可在智能手机上运行；METR 长任务基准显示 AI 可完成的人类工作量从 4 分钟增至 17 小时，最终该基准因无法准确测量而失效。他还提出「召唤者（conjurer）」这一新的 AI 协作模式，并展示了由 Opus 5.5 多智能体自主完成图表与视频制作的过程。
正文节选
My second book on AI, Co-Existence, is out today (and you can get it here), 30 months after the release of Co-Intelligence in early 2024. Looking back across the gap between these books is a good way to get a sense of AI progress. And, thanks to AI, I can describe this progress with some quite lovely charts. Making the charts is itself a good indicator of how far things have come. In the era of chatbots, the era of Co-Intelligence, I would have had to work back-and-forth with an AI in a chat win