研究：顶尖AI专家严重低估该领域发展速度
原标题：Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds
AI 摘要
预测研究机构FRI发布中期报告，指出顶尖AI专家和超级预测者普遍低估了AI领域的实际进展速度。报告显示，AI在2025年7月达到国际数学奥林匹克金牌水平，比专家预测中位数早五年；在病毒学、网络安全基准以及AI公司营收等指标上，专家预测也明显偏低。不过，在生物实验室任务和自动驾驶等现实影响指标上，专家预测并未系统性偏低，部分甚至偏高。FRI计划引入持续更新的LLM预测，并筛选更准确的专家小组成员。
正文节选
Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds How fast is AI improving? That question usually goes to experts at top universities, heavily cited AI researchers, and seasoned economists. Yet these same specialists significantly underestimated recent progress on benchmarks and some adoption metrics, according to an interim report from the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI). Since mid-2022, FRI has collected forecasts on AI progress across several studies and proje